I came across an interesting story recently.
Somewhat unusual – so it got my attention.
Here is a brief extract from a long and rather sad tale.
“The saga relates to the repeal of the Greyhound Racing Prohibition Bill in New South Wales, Australia.
The bill provides a $41 million compensation package over five years to assist, implement and fund reforms, with $30 million assigned to welfare based capital upgrades.
As the old saying goes, the devil is in the detail; but in this case it would seem the devil will be very much in the implementation of the detail.
Regardless, the $8.2 million-per-year becomes obsolete after five years and the increased costs are to be absorbed by the existing industry revenue.
Presumably, the five-year period has been determined so that any resulting industry turmoil will be something for the next government of the day to deal with.
For such dramatic reform, it seems incongruent that neither the government of the day, nor the NSW Greyhound Alliance who have brokered the dealhave released any financial modelling to support the bill and its reforms.
How is it then possible for an industry participant, or even those charged with implementing the reforms; to foresee the shape of the industry five years from now?
The only logical conclusion is that the financial modelling has not been done.
The reforms not costed. The pros and cons not yet evaluated.
It’s back-of-the-envelope financial governance at best. Irresponsibility at its worst.
In the spirit of fictional mathematics and forward financial planning, we thought we would run the ruler over the likely costs of these reforms, and gain some insight in to what the industry might look like going forward.
The article goes on to paint a very bleak and woeful financial picture.”
Just another example of decisions based on inadequate information –inadequate research – compounded by the lack of a flexible, appropriate, structured financial model – a model which would have allowed informed decisions.
Colin Human
